Believe Your Own Lying Eyes
By Raymond Shipley
Despite new polls that come out daily showing Clinton with the lead over Trump, many continue to scratch their heads in wonder as to how this can be. Trump has been holding rally after rally, selling out stadiums of 30,000 with another 10,000 or so standing outside because they can't get in, while Clinton struggles to fill school lunch rooms and Tim Kaine held a rally in Florida with only 30 in attendance. Yes, that's 30 people - the decimal is in the proper place. Are the polls simply wrong?
Most polls question "likely voters" that own landlines in their homes. It goes without saying that fewer and fewer people fit that criteria, and a "likely voter" may or may not vote at all. Moreover, it has been shown these polls seem to overrepresent Democrats as well. Do my lying eyes deceive me, then? Are rallies of tens of thousands wrong when MSNBC tells me they're right?
The Primary Model
Helmut Norpoth, PhD, claims my eyes are just fine. He runs the website primarymodel.com, which has used the party primaries to predict who will be president successfully in every election since they were introduced in 1912 (except the controversial 1960, where Kennedy beat Nixon). Due to Trump winning both New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, whereas Clinton and Sanders split them, Trump has a massive advantage in momentum, hype and actual voter turnout. Additionally, after two terms of a Democrat POTUS Norpoth claims the pendulum inevitably has swung in favor of the GOP. And for the "Never Trump" crowd who wishes the GOP would have nominated another, according to the Primary Model, only Trump would defeat Clinton (and Trump would also defeat Sanders by an even wider margin).
Clinton vs Trump
Nothing is written in stone until all ballots are in, counted and a new POTUS is sworn into office. However, a Clinton victory would assuredly tear this country apart. Nixon was forced to resign after lying about when he learned of Watergate, Reagan faced impeachment in the Iran-Contra affair (until John Poindexter testified Reagan told the truth), and Bill Clinton was impeached for lying. Whether one agrees with her policies or simply wishes to vote against Trump, there seems to be no question that Hillary lied to the FBI, Congress and the People. She will not have a friendly Congress, and despite the MSM's attempts to force-feed her to the masses, the People overwhelmingly despise her. As Pat Buchanan wrote, Clinton in the WH would be a presidency from Hell.
Trump, on the other hand, would likely enter the WH with a GOP controlled Congress. His proposed tax cuts, deregulation, deportations, border security, Supreme Court plans, repeal of Obamacare and more would likely be supported. Although he does not enjoy the support of the entire nation, sound economic policies have historically had a tendency to change minds, and even Michael Moore has endorsed him. Truly interesting times in which we live.
In the words of Rocky Balboa, "It ain't over 'til it's over." Get out and vote, despite what the polls say. This nation belongs to the People, so let this government hear you.